A prediction that Obama loses

05 Nov

I sure hope he is right!!!


A Las Vegas “odds maker” gives his reasons for big win by Romney in

November. Interesting analysis.

Most political predictions are made by biased pollsters, pundits, or

prognosticators who are either rooting for Republicans or Democrats. I am

neither. I am a former Libertarian Vice Presidential nominee, and a

well-known Vegas odds maker with one of the most accurate records of

predicting political races.

But as an odds maker with a pretty remarkable track record of picking

political races, I play no favorites. I simply use common sense to call

them as I see them. Back in late December I released my New Year’s

Predictions. I predicted back then- before a single GOP primary had been

held, with Romney trailing for months to almost every GOP competitor from

Rick Perry to Herman Cain to Newt- that Romney would easily rout his

competition to win the GOP nomination by a landslide. I also predicted that

the Presidential race between Obama and Romney would be very close until

election day. But that on election day Romney would win by a landslide

similar to Reagan-Carter in 1980.

Understanding history, today I am even more convinced of a resounding

Romney victory. 32 years ago at this moment in time, Reagan was losing by 9

points to Carter. Romney is right now running even in polls. So why do most

pollsters give Obama the edge?

First, most pollsters are missing one ingredient- common sense. Here is my

gut instinct. Not one American who voted for McCain 4 years ago will switch

to Obama. Not one in all the land. But many millions of people who voted

for an unknown Obama 4 years ago are angry, disillusioned, turned off, or

scared about the future. Voters know Obama now- and that is a bad harbinger.

Now to an analysis of the voting blocks that matter in U.S. politics:

**Black voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. His

endorsement of gay marriage has alienated many black church-going Christians.

He may get 88% of their vote instead of the 96% he got in 2008. This is not

good news for Obama.

**Jewish voters. Obama has been weak in his support of Israel . Many

Jewish voters and big donors are angry and disappointed. I predict Obama’s

Jewish support drops from 78% in 2008 to the low 60’s. This is not good

news for Obama.

**Youth voters. Obama’s biggest and most enthusiastic believers from 4

years ago have graduated into a job market from hell. Young people are

disillusioned, frightened, and broke- a bad combination. The enthusiasm is

long gone. Turnout will be much lower among young voters, as will actual

voting percentages. This not good news for Obama.

**Catholic voters. Obama won a majority of Catholics in 2008. That won’t

happen again. Out of desperation to please women, Obama went to war with

the Catholic Church over contraception. Now he is being sued by the

Catholic Church. Majority lost. This is not good news for Obama.

**Small Business owners. Because I ran for Vice President last time

around, and I’m a small businessman myself, I know literally thousands of

small business owners. At least 40% of them in my circle of friends, fans

and supporters voted for Obama 4 years ago to give someone different a

chance. As I warned them that he would pursue a war on capitalism and

demonize anyone who owned a business…that he’d support unions over the

private sector in a big way…that he’d overwhelm the economy with spending

and debt. My friends didn’t listen. Four years later, I can’t find one

person in my circle of small business owner friends voting for Obama. Not

one. This is not good news for Obama.

**Blue collar working class whites. Do I need to say a thing? White

working class voters are about as happy with Obama as Boston Red Sox fans

feel about the New York Yankees. This is not good news for Obama.

**Suburban moms. The issue isn’t contraception, it’s having a job to pay for

contraception. Obama’s economy frightens these moms. They are worried about

putting food on the table. They fear for their children’s future. This is

not good news for Obama.

**Military Veterans. McCain won this group by 10 points. Romney is winning

by 24 points. The more our military vets got to see of Obama, the more they

disliked him. This is not good news for Obama.

Add it up. Is there one major group where Obama has gained since 2008? Will

anyone in America wake up on election day saying, I didn’t vote for Obama 4

years ago, but he’s done such a fantastic job, I can’t wait to vote for him

today. Does anyone feel that a vote for Obama makes their job more secure?

Forget the polls. My gut instincts as a Vegas odds maker and common sense

small businessman tell me this will be a historic landslide and a

world-class repudiation of Obama’s radical and risky socialist agenda. It’s

Reagan-Carter all over again.


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Posted by on November 5, 2012 in Business, Family, Goverment, News and politics, Religion


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